According to census data, today in Russia there are more than 142,905,000 people, that is, the Russians continue to die off (recall that the maximum population of the country was recorded in 1991 and amounted to little more than 148 million people). Wide audience worried: what the country is heading?.
Experts answer: nothing unexpected happens, the vector of expected. Another ' sick ' option: Russian women outnumber men by about 10 million. For experts and it is not news, it is known that men in Russia do not last long.
Specialists, however, another surprise - suspiciously high numbers, particularly in the North Caucasus, where the census recorded the highest growth rate at 6.3 percent.
- The growing population of Dagestan is inflated, since the urban population of the republic is not characterized by high birth rates and migration flows there, - says Natalia Zubarevich, regional program director of the Independent Institute of Social Policy. - There are doubts on the dynamics of the population of Chechnya, although there is the highest birthrate in the country. According to demographers, the Chechen population figures were too high back in the 2002 census and this error is reproduced in the new. On the contrary, the population of Ingushetia decreased compared to the 2002 census, when it was clearly overstated by refugees.
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According Zubarevich, in some republics of the population is difficult to count a number of reasons - from the administration ( of the population dependent on federal transfers ) to the technical, such as those associated with a poor view of migrant workers who left the region.
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By the way, lack of confidence from the experts was summoned to Moscow and the data: they are supposed to also overestimated, that is, the country's population could actually be reduced even more.
- In general, the published figures reflect the real picture, - said Anatoly Antonov, Head of the Department of Sociology and Demography of family sociology faculty of Moscow State University. - Still in the census there were many gaps. Our students are actively working as copyists, from them I know how it all took place. There have been cases of underreporting, rediscount of information, some people might consider double. Do not take all the absentee ballots, not everyone who moves during the census say about themselves, not all come to the attention of copyists, but many people simply refuse to respond. However, when you are working with the statistics of large numbers, these errors can compensate each other, so the resulting picture is still very close to reality.
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Whether the motive for taking a census of some specific measures - the question still open. As Natalie explains Zubarevich, fertility is somehow trying to encourage, for example through maternity capital, but the main problem - the high mortality rate among working-age population - are still not solved.
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This requires a set of measures - from the reorientation of medicine on cancer and cardiovascular disease to combat alcoholism and death on the roads. That is only to solve them quickly, experts say, probably will not be.
Materials prepared by Cyril Zhurenkov Mary Epifanova.
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